For the first time in picking the ponys, my “pseudo-scientific” method failed. Ass handed to me, nuff said…

Finally, (Kentucky) Derby Day is upon us. As per my “normal protocol,” I’ve checked the weather, reevaluated my statistics, crunched them one additional way, and checked the current odds. Below you’ll find my derby predictions, which barring a miracle/catastrophy, I’ll stick with until post time. I got the majority of my handicapping in on Thursday, so as to avoid the hype. Here’s where I take the hype factor, and some other things and combine them with the infamous “pseudo-scientific” method of mine. My assigned odds listed after pp and horse name, morning line odds followed by “current odds” (of close of advanced wagering on Friday night) in parentheses.

Win Contenders – Horses I believe to have a high likelihood to be racing to first place:

11 Sweetnorthernsaint 4-1 (10-1, 7-1)

3 Keyed Entry 5-1 (30-1, 42-1) “the $42 dollar horse” perhaps? (handicapping reference)

4 Sinister Minister 5-1 (12-1, 5-1)

Money Contenders – Horses I believe to have little likelihood of winning the race, but stand a greater than random chance of finishing in the money (second or third):

8 Barbaro 8-1 (4-1, 5-1)

18 Brother Derek 9-1 (3-1, 10-1)

9 Sharp Humor 10-1 (20-1, 25-1)

16 Cause to Believe 20-1 (50-1, 26-1)

All other horses, I believe have significantly less than a random chance of winning/finishing in the money.

How do you bet this?

Well, honestly I don’t know how YOU bet this. I do know how I plan to bet this though, significant thanks to “chippy” for helping me carve this out into a betting plan that makes sense with respect to the “exotic bets.”

For starters, all my win contenders will be bet accordingly. So, count on a ticket reading 11,3,4 win. The horses in that universe will also be bet to place/show providing they’re overlays in my odds to the public odds. Additionally, my “money contenders” will get place/show bets if they’re in overlay territory. I don’t have them as legit win contenders, so I will bet them off as place show (in the money). Right now, assuming the odds do not change (they will), I’m betting 9 and 16 to place and show each.

As for the exotic bets, I was considering going with the superfecta, however, i think the trifecta is more along my comfort level.

11,3,4 with 11,3,4,8,18,9 with 11,3,4,8,18,9 will be my most likely trifecta bet, unless I for some reason bump one of the money contenders off the chart.

Additionally, I’ll work through some exacta bets, with 11,3,4 wheeling through my money contenders list.

I do have a positive EV outlook on my races. I know which horses I like and more importantly why I like them. I’m also keeping my eye on the other horses, and understanding why the public likes them. Using the two perspectives, I’ve achieved my ideal bets. If the perfect race is run, I’m a winner (based on my figures, and assuming my “pseudo-scientific” method is dead on). If a less than perfect race is run, I’m at least playing the +EV ponys, the ones who I would play every time this race is run based on the information available right now.

Good luck and have fun betting the ponies.

Well, numbers have been crunched… field sorted through, so here we are with my Continuation Bet, I mean post on the Kentucky Derby. I must have poker on the brain (surprise surprise).

Anyways, I did my pseudo-scientific number crunching and analysis and have assigned the following odds to the field (note: I’m basing my odds on as near 100% as possible, as opposed to the 137.61% handicappers are using for this race):

Here’s how my analysis breaks down:

Group one horses – Win contenders (horses I believe have a very strong chance of winning the race, of which I assigned 5-1 or greater odds — official morning line odds are in parantheses) – roughly 61% chance on my scale of moneying from this group:

4 Sinister Minister 3-1 (12-1)
11 Sweetnorthernsaint 4-1 (10-1)
3 Keyed Entry 5-1 (30-1)

Group two horses - Money Contenders (horses I believe have a chance of finishing top three, of which assigned odds between group one and group three odds — official morning line odds are in parantheses) As a group, these horses combined get roughly 29% chance of winning, however, the only potential value plays I’d make are with Sharp Humor… Brother Derek gets just better than “random odds of winning” on my scorecard.:

9 Sharp Humor 8-1 (20-1)
18 Brother Derek 9-1 (3-1)

17 Lawyer Ron less than “random odds” of winning (4-1)
6 Showing Up less than “random odds” of winning (20-1)
8 Barbaro less than “random odds” of winning (4-1)
7 Bob and John less than “random odds” of winning (12-1)

Group three horses – Non Contenders (horses I believe have very little chance of finishing in the top three, of which I assigned roughly a ten percent total chance of any one of them finishing in the top three and did not bother to statistically represent my odds, as they’re insignificant to me for my predictions — official morning line odds are in parentheses) These horses have “significantly less than random odds of winning” based on my calculations:

16 Cause to Believe (50-1)
2 Steppenwolfer (30-1)
12 Private Vow (50-1)

14 Deputy Glitters (50-1)
20 Flashy Bull (50-1)
5 Point Determined (12-1)
10 A.P. Warrior (15-1)

13 Bluegrass Cat (30-1)
19 Storm Treasure (50-1)
1 Jazil (30-1)

15 Seaside Retreat (50-1)

That being said, providing the “perfect race” is run (see 2004 Kentucky Derby) I have the finish going down Sinister Minister, Sweetnorthernsaint, Keyed Entry. All three horses, in addition to being my favorites have significant value based on my card vs. the morning line (4-11-3 boxed). It should be noted, I’ve first turned this into a nine horse race, then I narrowed it down to five horses who I have assigned “better than random odds” of winning/finishing in the money. For these reasons, I only stated my personal odds on the horses who I assigned better than random odds of winning the race. Consequently, any bets I place will only contain those horses who I give better than a random chance of winning/finishing in the money.

Here we go, tying this into poker now. It stands to reason that if I play only hands that have a better than “random” chance of winning, I’m only playing those hands in which I expect to win. Additionally, if I play them “well,” I’m maximizing my profitability over the long term. In the short run though, the hands are not guaranteed to be profitable, especially considering the “perfect flop” does not always come down each and every hand. That being said, I don’t necessarily expect the “perfect race” to be run. However, just like playing +EV hands, I’ve given myself the best chance of capitalizing on my winnings in the event a perfect or near perfect board appears… In terms of racing, I’m only betting on horses that are +EV in my mind.

These, however, are just my thoughts… I’m not a professional pony picker I just play one on the PP (Poker Pub). Feel free to discuss, ask questions, leave comments, request I be deemed insane, etc.

Mike

I can’t go another day without talking ponies, given the Kentucky Derby is a few days away. The horses have drawn their posts and opening lines set. I’ll be spending the next few days intermittantly “doing my homework,” cruching numbers and assigning my own odds to the horses. I have a “hobby level at best” interest in the races, specifically the triple crown races, and I’ve been somewhat successful using my little handicapping formula, especially in the Derby.

I’d previously posted on the poker pub on my “uneducated derby thoughts,” where I named three horses I was liking. Of which, two are in the derby, which is not bad for futures predictions without crunching numbers back in March. Point Determined (12-1), and Sweetnorthernsaint (10-1) are in, First Samuari is not. Back in March, Brother Derek was the favorite and he still seems to be at 3-1. I had no reason to not like him before, and do not now… however, without having crunched numbers, I’m still not able to get behind him in this race. We’ll see though in the next few days when I crunch my numbers and put the horses to the statistical test.

The field is shaping up as follows:

1 Jazil 30-1
2 Steppenwolfer 30-1
3 Keyed Entry 30-1
4 Sinister Minister 12-1
5 Point Determined 12-1
6 Showing Up 20-1
7 Bob and John 12-1
8 Barbaro 4-1
9 Sharp Humor 20-1
10 A.P. Warrior 15-1
11 Sweetnorthernsaint 10-1
12 Private Vow 50-1
13 Bluegrass Cat 30-1
14 Deputy Glitters 50-1
15 Seaside Retreat 50-1
16 Cause to Believe 50-1
17 Lawyer Ron 4-1
18 Brother Derek 3-1
19 Storm Treasure 50-1
20 Flashy Bull 50-1

I’ll be covering the Derby in greater detail over the next few days, as the “numbers” come out tonight that interest me. By Friday, I’ll have my predictions.

As for tonight, the CheckRayz Leaderboard poker tour heats up with a $5+.50 $100 added tournament at River Belle Poker. Expect the A game.

Mike

ou. This is a “right this minute, off the wall” idea, so I’m not purposely leaving anyone out. If there’s anyone I should be listing… or if anyone wants to toot their horn, drop me a line:

Shout outs to…

Clayshooter for taking down the Q1 CheckRayz Leaderboard Poker Tour Championship,

Norman for not only taking down the winner takes all CheckRayz Challenge, but for also parlaying it to one hell of a week in the Sun,

Reelcrazy for knocking down his second CheckRayz event of the quarter and then cashing in the 20K guaranteed,

The Student for “bringin it” at the Shark hosted Blogger Poker Tour event,

Sharky for putting on one hell of a blogger poker tour event (family obligations and confusion in start time, sorry I couldn’t make it!),

Judith for continuing to bring me hands and situations to break down,

Poker4ever for putting on what I believe is the tightest low limit public event I’ve ever played in in the 2k guaranteed (I was in endgame mode at the beginning of the second hour, bringin it for two more straight and played 14th),

River Belle Poker for sponsoring the leaderboard and holding our three post-tour special events (checkrayz rewards is this week),

Yours truely for donking my way to a second place finish in an Omaha tourney (gasp!),

CT for bringing me some awesome and exciting, yet still “hush hush” news (read: congrats on something I’m not yet allowed to talk about! buzzzzzz),

SuperDonk for defying the odds and taking down “the hand.”

The Beer Football Club for knocking off the 2 time defending League champions and posting their first A League win of the season (2 games in). Beer have handed the Coach’s team what is only their second loss in three seasons and add this strong showing to the hard faught draw they earned vs. the coaches early last season.

The CheckRayz members for making the tour what it is…

Mike