Win Contenders – Horses I believe to have a high likelihood to be racing to first place:

11 Sweetnorthernsaint 4-1 (10-1, 7-1)

3 Keyed Entry 5-1 (30-1, 42-1) “the $42 dollar horse” perhaps? (handicapping reference)

4 Sinister Minister 5-1 (12-1, 5-1)

Money Contenders – Horses I believe to have little likelihood of winning the race, but stand a greater than random chance of finishing in the money (second or third):

8 Barbaro 8-1 (4-1, 5-1)

18 Brother Derek 9-1 (3-1, 10-1)

9 Sharp Humor 10-1 (20-1, 25-1)

16 Cause to Believe 20-1 (50-1, 26-1)

All other horses, I believe have significantly less than a random chance of winning/finishing in the money.

How do you bet this?

Well, honestly I don’t know how YOU bet this. I do know how I plan to bet this though, significant thanks to “chippy” for helping me carve this out into a betting plan that makes sense with respect to the “exotic bets.”

For starters, all my win contenders will be bet accordingly. So, count on a ticket reading 11,3,4 win. The horses in that universe will also be bet to place/show providing they’re overlays in my odds to the public odds. Additionally, my “money contenders” will get place/show bets if they’re in overlay territory. I don’t have them as legit win contenders, so I will bet them off as place show (in the money). Right now, assuming the odds do not change (they will), I’m betting 9 and 16 to place and show each.

As for the exotic bets, I was considering going with the superfecta, however, i think the trifecta is more along my comfort level.

11,3,4 with 11,3,4,8,18,9 with 11,3,4,8,18,9 will be my most likely trifecta bet, unless I for some reason bump one of the money contenders off the chart.

Additionally, I’ll work through some exacta bets, with 11,3,4 wheeling through my money contenders list.

I do have a positive EV outlook on my races. I know which horses I like and more importantly why I like them. I’m also keeping my eye on the other horses, and understanding why the public likes them. Using the two perspectives, I’ve achieved my ideal bets. If the perfect race is run, I’m a winner (based on my figures, and assuming my “pseudo-scientific” method is dead on). If a less than perfect race is run, I’m at least playing the +EV ponys, the ones who I would play every time this race is run based on the information available right now.

Good luck and have fun betting the ponies.

Anyways, I did my pseudo-scientific number crunching and analysis and have assigned the following odds to the field (note: I’m basing my odds on as near 100% as possible, as opposed to the 137.61% handicappers are using for this race):

Here’s how my analysis breaks down:

Group one horses – Win contenders (horses I believe have a very strong chance of winning the race, of which I assigned 5-1 or greater odds — official morning line odds are in parantheses) – roughly 61% chance on my scale of moneying from this group:

4 Sinister Minister 3-1 (12-1)
11 Sweetnorthernsaint 4-1 (10-1)
3 Keyed Entry 5-1 (30-1)

Group two horses - Money Contenders (horses I believe have a chance of finishing top three, of which assigned odds between group one and group three odds — official morning line odds are in parantheses) As a group, these horses combined get roughly 29% chance of winning, however, the only potential value plays I’d make are with Sharp Humor… Brother Derek gets just better than “random odds of winning” on my scorecard.:

9 Sharp Humor 8-1 (20-1)
18 Brother Derek 9-1 (3-1)

17 Lawyer Ron less than “random odds” of winning (4-1)
6 Showing Up less than “random odds” of winning (20-1)
8 Barbaro less than “random odds” of winning (4-1)
7 Bob and John less than “random odds” of winning (12-1)

Group three horses – Non Contenders (horses I believe have very little chance of finishing in the top three, of which I assigned roughly a ten percent total chance of any one of them finishing in the top three and did not bother to statistically represent my odds, as they’re insignificant to me for my predictions — official morning line odds are in parentheses) These horses have “significantly less than random odds of winning” based on my calculations:

16 Cause to Believe (50-1)
2 Steppenwolfer (30-1)
12 Private Vow (50-1)

14 Deputy Glitters (50-1)
20 Flashy Bull (50-1)
5 Point Determined (12-1)
10 A.P. Warrior (15-1)

13 Bluegrass Cat (30-1)
19 Storm Treasure (50-1)
1 Jazil (30-1)

15 Seaside Retreat (50-1)

That being said, providing the “perfect race” is run (see 2004 Kentucky Derby) I have the finish going down Sinister Minister, Sweetnorthernsaint, Keyed Entry. All three horses, in addition to being my favorites have significant value based on my card vs. the morning line (4-11-3 boxed). It should be noted, I’ve first turned this into a nine horse race, then I narrowed it down to five horses who I have assigned “better than random odds” of winning/finishing in the money. For these reasons, I only stated my personal odds on the horses who I assigned better than random odds of winning the race. Consequently, any bets I place will only contain those horses who I give better than a random chance of winning/finishing in the money.

Here we go, tying this into poker now. It stands to reason that if I play only hands that have a better than “random” chance of winning, I’m only playing those hands in which I expect to win. Additionally, if I play them “well,” I’m maximizing my profitability over the long term. In the short run though, the hands are not guaranteed to be profitable, especially considering the “perfect flop” does not always come down each and every hand. That being said, I don’t necessarily expect the “perfect race” to be run. However, just like playing +EV hands, I’ve given myself the best chance of capitalizing on my winnings in the event a perfect or near perfect board appears… In terms of racing, I’m only betting on horses that are +EV in my mind.

These, however, are just my thoughts… I’m not a professional pony picker I just play one on the PP (Poker Pub). Feel free to discuss, ask questions, leave comments, request I be deemed insane, etc.

Mike

I’d previously posted on the poker pub on my “uneducated derby thoughts,” where I named three horses I was liking. Of which, two are in the derby, which is not bad for futures predictions without crunching numbers back in March. Point Determined (12-1), and Sweetnorthernsaint (10-1) are in, First Samuari is not. Back in March, Brother Derek was the favorite and he still seems to be at 3-1. I had no reason to not like him before, and do not now… however, without having crunched numbers, I’m still not able to get behind him in this race. We’ll see though in the next few days when I crunch my numbers and put the horses to the statistical test.

The field is shaping up as follows:

1 Jazil 30-1
2 Steppenwolfer 30-1
3 Keyed Entry 30-1
4 Sinister Minister 12-1
5 Point Determined 12-1
6 Showing Up 20-1
7 Bob and John 12-1
8 Barbaro 4-1
9 Sharp Humor 20-1
10 A.P. Warrior 15-1
11 Sweetnorthernsaint 10-1
12 Private Vow 50-1
13 Bluegrass Cat 30-1
14 Deputy Glitters 50-1
15 Seaside Retreat 50-1
16 Cause to Believe 50-1
17 Lawyer Ron 4-1
18 Brother Derek 3-1
19 Storm Treasure 50-1
20 Flashy Bull 50-1

I’ll be covering the Derby in greater detail over the next few days, as the “numbers” come out tonight that interest me. By Friday, I’ll have my predictions.

As for tonight, the CheckRayz Leaderboard poker tour heats up with a $5+.50 $100 added tournament at River Belle Poker. Expect the A game.

Mike

Shout outs to…

Clayshooter for taking down the Q1 CheckRayz Leaderboard Poker Tour Championship,

Norman for not only taking down the winner takes all CheckRayz Challenge, but for also parlaying it to one hell of a week in the Sun,

Reelcrazy for knocking down his second CheckRayz event of the quarter and then cashing in the 20K guaranteed,

The Student for “bringin it” at the Shark hosted Blogger Poker Tour event,

Sharky for putting on one hell of a blogger poker tour event (family obligations and confusion in start time, sorry I couldn’t make it!),

Judith for continuing to bring me hands and situations to break down,

Poker4ever for putting on what I believe is the tightest low limit public event I’ve ever played in in the 2k guaranteed (I was in endgame mode at the beginning of the second hour, bringin it for two more straight and played 14th),

River Belle Poker for sponsoring the leaderboard and holding our three post-tour special events (checkrayz rewards is this week),

Yours truely for donking my way to a second place finish in an Omaha tourney (gasp!),

CT for bringing me some awesome and exciting, yet still “hush hush” news (read: congrats on something I’m not yet allowed to talk about! buzzzzzz),

SuperDonk for defying the odds and taking down “the hand.”

The Beer Football Club for knocking off the 2 time defending League champions and posting their first A League win of the season (2 games in). Beer have handed the Coach’s team what is only their second loss in three seasons and add this strong showing to the hard faught draw they earned vs. the coaches early last season.

The CheckRayz members for making the tour what it is…

Mike

Mike

Monday – Poker News
Tuesday – Strategy
Wednesday – Strategy
Thursday – off-topic posts
Friday – Thoughts on the week that was and the ever so popular Friday night mailbag
Saturday-Sunday – Whatever I feel like posting, with hopes of doing a regular… or semi-regular guest spot.

That being said, I’m going to begin today and go off topic, continuing endgame strategy on Tuesday. Eventually, I’ll get around to reworking the archives so that each topic will be appropriately archived.

Upcoming Kentucky Derby

I’ve been somewhat of a fan of the month of March. Not just because of the March Madness either. I’ve had quite the string of luck in betting the ponies over the past few years, specifically at the Kentucky Derby. I got “lucky” and nailed the trifecta two years ago, getting behind a relatively unknown Smarty Jones before it was fashionable to do so. I also got behind Giacomo for the derby last year, in addition to Closing Argument, both of which I lost interest in as the triple crown progressed.

I have a “formula” I use to pick my Derby favorites. I’ve not yet even begun to crunch numbers, and do not dabble in the futures pools that are out there, however, I’m taking a liking to two of the contenders of the derby field, First Samurai is really standing out in my mind – especially if he makes it to the Derby and the track is sloppy. I’m also liking a horse named Sweetnorthernsaint as a value play. Additionally, I’m digging a horse running a bit below the radar right now called Point Determined.

The field will become more clear this weekend where their will be several big prep races, which will show us who the pretenders are. It should be noted that I’ve got no valid reason to not like the favored Brother Derek, however, he seems like yet another one of those horses who are hyped going into the derby that do not pan out.

These are not my “picks,” just my observations with the untrained eye. I’ll begin crunching stats and offering thoughts and commentary in the near future.

Football Notes…

You just knew I’d have to find a way to bring football into off topic thursday, given that my Steelers are once again… Your Super Bowl Champions.

It seems there is going to be Chaos in the NFL in the upcoming years, (read, pissing contest between the owners and the NFLPA). This is going to make life difficult going forward for the smaller market clubs, in my mind. I’m not sure I’m liking what I see. Additionally, Cutler is a cut above the rest (of the universe not named Leinart going into the draft), and Vince Young is nothing more than an “also ran.” Though, I see Vince landing in Oakland, as big Al loves speed (wouldn’t be surprised to see Marcus Vick go there as either a very late round pick or an undrafted free agent either).

Thoughts and the mailbag tomorrow…

So, in the interest of fairness, let’s look at the predictions that didn’t pan out…

1. Ben played far from perfect.
2. Stephens dropped several passes, no fumble though.
3. It doesn’t really matter, as we won…….

I’m still sooooo pumped about our victory. Nearly as pumped as winning the checkrayz – river belle freeroll last week!Tomorrow, we’ll be back to writing poker… But until then, Hats off to ya Pittsburgh!!! We’re the champions of the world!!!!!!!!!!

Mike

1. San Diego upsets Indy (called this week six).
2. Philly misses the playoffs (week 1).
3. Minn plays like a better team without Dante’s inferno.
4. Pats talking about their injuries during the regular season(which were approximately the same amount of injuries they had in 2004-2005) suggested they didn’t believe in themselves.

Playoff predictions made wildcard weekend.
5. Skins win, then choke in the playoffs.
6. New England follows suit with the skins.
7. Eli studies his brother’s playoff game film, which results in following the same post season path.
8. Cincy, who dey?
9. Carolina – Chicago is nothing more than the “who sucks less” bowl. Carolina travels to the NW, but flies south for the rest of the winter after realizing they can’t hang.
10. Burgh drops Indy, nuff said.
11. Seattle goes through to the big game.
12. Jake Plummer is still Jake Plummer, dispite his Grizley Adamsesque appearance. 34-17 Steelers (prediction made at finals table of CheckRayz event at Celeb Poker – for entertainment purposes only).

My partner is a Hawks fan. Naturally so, as he lives in Sea-Town. We’ve yet to make a formal wager, however, I’m confident I’ll get the congratulatory telephone call when the Steelers win. In the unlikely event the Steelers lose, I’ll be placing a phonecall to the Shark family to congratulate Mr. and Mrs. Shark. We’re all honorable peeps, and the absence of a formal friendly wager won’t stop us from doing the right thing here.

Super Bowl Notes…

Game’s closer than what I’d like to think. Seattle are a tough squad, winning 11 straight. Steelers have been in playoff mode for about seven game weeks now. One team is peaking, the other streakin’.

Steelers have the edge, as they’ve faced many a team “just like Seattle” whereas Seattle have only faced one three-four D this season, and won 13-10. Hasslebeck threw for 224 yds, 1 td, 2 INT. Alexander didn’t find the end zone, rushing 21 times for 61 yds.

In the interest of fairness, both teams can be electric. Each squad has top notch WR core, dangerous RB, and a solid D.

Prediction

I don’t see Seattle only putting up ten. They’re playing good ball. I’ll give them three TD’s and a FG. We’ll give two to Shaun Alexander, one to Jurevicius in the air, and a Josh Brown FG.

24 ain’t enough though. Steelers see 1 TD from Bettis on the ground, one from Heath Miller, Hines grabs one, as does Cedric Wilson. Josh Brown kicks a FG as well, making the final score line 31-24.

Other Super Bowl Predictions:

2 INT from Hasslebeck
1 funble from Jeremy Stephens
Surprisingly small amount of sacks from the Steelers D. However Hasslebeck knows they’re there and is paniced.
Alexander does not get 100 yds on the ground.
Steelers do.
Big Ben puts up near perfect numbers, from the QB rating standpoint.
Randell El has a huge day on Special Teams, and catches six balls between the 20s.

There ya go. See everyone on Monday, as I’m off to the game.

Mike

Last night, CheckRayz held their poker tourney at Hollywood Poker. This was the first time the CheckRayz Leaderboard Poker Tour stopped in Hollywood for chip slingin’, CheckRayz’n, Poker Action. With a $200 prize pool added to the $5+.50 buy-in, and a $10 free bonus for all first time depositors entered in the tourney, we had a small but tough field. Carhauler, a Shark Poker Tour regular, mowed down the field – winning the event. He put your’s truly out in third place. Nice, tight aggressive play in these events. I could not be happier with the play we’ve seen in our tourneys. If you’ve not yet registered, or experienced a checkrayz event, you can sign up here.

River Belle

Tonight, the CheckRayz tour heads South to River Belle Poker. We’ll be holding our first of three February events at River Belle tonight, in the form of a $200 Freeroll Poker Tourney – Leaderboard points always on the line. One week from today, we’re heading back to the Belle for our second Freeroll. We’re following up with a $5+.50, $200 added tourney in two weeks. Deposit and play 200 hands, to win yourself some Rayz “stuff” and show your appreciation for the support River Belle have shown us.

Steelers-Hawks

My partner, the fearless, one toofed leader of the Shark Army is a Seahawks fan. Given he hails from “that part” of the world, it makes sense. It just so happens I reside in “this part” of the world, and logically I am a Steelers fan. We’ve each teased a friendly wager between the two of us on this game. Sharky started out by proposing the loser shaves their head, and posts pic on both blogs. However, it turned out my suspicians were correct, as Shark is current absent a head o’ hair under that sweet looking SPT hat he sports. Would have been a bad bet for me to take. Rumour mill is a buzzin’ though, with talk of Shark secretly negotiating with the HairClub for men, to replace the incumbant president Sy Sperling — though unknown to Sharky, Fred Durst, hairclub spokesperson is also in the running. Will Sy maintain control, or will up and coming Sharky dethrone him? Keep in mind, not only are these guys canidates, they’re also members!!!

We do, however, still need a friendly wager of some sort. Comments and suggestions are appreciated and can be posted either here, the forum, or via mail to my attention.

Closing news

Its looking like the “Death Star” is fully operational. All three of the Shark Powered Network poker sites are “steaming,” with respect to poker tourneys this month. Several freeroll poker tournaments, money added poker tournaments, and a few blackjack tourneys on the horizon. Nice thing is, I am certain each site will be adding MORE tourneys to their calendar. Sharky referenced nearly 40 tourneys for the short month of February between all the sites. That being said, there’s little reason to go anywhere else outside of the Shark Powered Network. Join, play, support the network. Let us keep bringing you tourney action. CheckRayz, Online Shark, Shark Poker Tour. OS & SPT Calendar. CheckRayz Calendar.

Mailbag and outtakes on River Belle tommorrow. Stay tuned.