To give everyone an update on the CheckRayz Leaderboard Rewards tournament, scheduled for today at 7pm EST, I still have no news. I cannot register as of right now either. CT has been the only one able to join the event, and that’s because her name was submitted separate from the original list. That being said, I am going to continue to try to work with River Belle Poker to try to get this tourney up and running today, as scheduled. My suggestion is to keep trying to enter. In the event the tourney does not properly open for entry, rest assured, we will reschedule it.

PokerTracker Stats, Revisited…

Last we looked at my stats, part I and part II… We weren’t running “too bad.” I had a tight aggressive and profitable game going. I was happy with my percentage of hands I was playing, my preflop raising, my positional play, and my win rate when seeing flops. I was planning to work on giving up my blinds a bit more. Additionally, my flop aggression is about where I wanted it, my turn and river aggression needed to come up a bit… especially my river betting. I had cited that if I increased my aggression on the river, then it would stand to reason that my turn bets and/or moves would get more respect, as my opposition would fear having to pay on the river as well.

That being said, let’s take a look at my last 6000 or so hands.

Voluntarily put money into the pot percentage: 24.12% — previous number was 22.79%, so I seem to be seeing a bit more hands. This is not a problem in and of itself, but could be… So, we’ll note this number and revisit if necessary.

Preflop Raise: 13.75% — previous number was 13.62%. I’m not a cheap date, am I?

Attempted to “steal” blinds: 22.59% — previous number was 20.55%. Looking at this number rise, at the same time my voluntarily entering the pot number is rising suggests that I might be playing more “positional” poker. These two stats alone “could” be a good thing, but we’ll dig deeper to confirm this.

Folded Small Blind to Steal Attempts: This was an area I had suggested I wanted to improve upon. 76.96% is where I am at currently. I want to be between 78-88%, and previously I was at 71.26%. So, combined with my VP$ip on the rise, and my steals on the rise. This number going up further suggests I am playing more “in position,” which again suggests my stats are looking better, relative to what I want them to be. Moving along…

Folded Big Blind to Steal Attempts: 49.39%. I wanted this number, last time to be between 55-65%. Last we checked, I was at 51.49%. So it seems I am playing out of the big blind more. This “could” be that I am at tables that are more so consisting of either limpers or call stations. However, I am going to flat out say I want this number to go up. I’ll commit to forcing this number up over the next set of hands.

I dig deeper into this statistic and see that unlike in the Small Blind, when I take a stand with my big blind (by either calling, or raising in defense), my win rate is not high enough to justify this percentage being as low as it is. Don’t get me wrong, this is not “problematic” for my game, however, when I am defending my small blind, and winning at showdown over 70% of the times that I go to showdown, and an additional 13.6% of the time without showdown from the small blind defense. This is compared to winning 25.6% of the time before showdown, and only 41.6% at showdown, its clear that this stat needs tweaked a bit. I’m committing right now to be “as stubborn” defending my big blind, generally speaking.

Won when saw flop: 40.75% of the time. Last time I cited I should be winning 31-40% of the time, and was winning 39.6% of the time. I’m happy with this stat, but I’m willing to bet this stat will increase even more as I get my big blind play in order.

Flop Aggression: 1.14 — last time’s stat was 1.9 and rising. I was happy with that stat and despite it being a bit low this time around, I’m not “disappointed” with it. This suggests I am not always throwing out a continuation bet. I’ll often check and raise and sometimes check and fold. I’m playing the flop very situational, taking into consideration the board, number of opponents, my hand, and how all of that ties into one another. Stand alone, this stat is neither good nor bad. Ideally I am shooting for an aggression factor between 1.8-3. But if the other stats between the turn and river are “adjusted,” I won’t look at this as “problematic” but instead as an area that may need some attention. So, once again, let’s dig a bit deeper.

Turn Aggression: 1.94 — last time my turn aggression factor was 2.53. I wanted this stat also to be between 1.8-3.0. My flop and turn aggression have come down. I’m beginning to believe that I’m not happy with my post flop play. My win rate is fine when I see the flop, but either I’m not value playing enough, or I am not making moves, looking to take down enough pots before the showdown. We’ll continue looking.

River Aggression: 2.80 — I was at 1.76 last time, and shooting for 1.8 to 2.5. Apparently I over shot.

I’d suspect that I am either slow playing too much, or not taking advantage of “selling” the expensive turn call. On one hand, I’m betting on the back end sufficiently, as I had planned. On the other hand, the purpose of playing more aggressively on the river was to gain some love on the turn. I’ve not maximized this relationship and need to focus more on betting the turn AND the river going forward.

BB/100 hands: 2.66 — last time we did the checkup we were looking at a win rate of 2.93. I’m willing to bet that I can drive this number well above 3 if I play my turn and river better and give up my BB’s a bit more often.

Overall, I am playing well. My stats look decent to pretty impressive. There are a few holes I need to plug, and a few hands I need to let go of earlier. But overall, the game is a well oiled machine.

Next week I plan to go into detail on strategy for newer players. My article last week on why I play tight and aggressive was generally speaking to new players, and was more so an overall posture. After further discussion and reflection, I now know that I need to start at the beginning to help my “target audience.” So beginning Monday, we’ll start with getting one’s self organized.

Yea, yea, I said next post would not be til Sunday. However, I’m up a bit early. And yea, I know I said I was planning to go to bed last night. I tried. I went to bed, layed there for about five minutes and heard my messenger goin nuts. Got up, tended to business and fired up Sun Poker “just to see.” I’m glad I did.

I sat at my 2/4 table and took it easy while I collected my pokertracker stats. Once I began playing, I had a hard time keeping a player to my immediate right, which was perfectly fine with me. I preferred for Mr. 59% to act right before me. I usually do not sit at a tight table, but this guy was profitable enough to keep me there. Plus, the table was relatively weak. To my immediate left sat a guy who played 27% flops, never raised preflop, nor did he check-raise. He was a tight-weak player who was far from tricky. Next to him sat Mr. 10%. No worries there. And finally, Mr. 15%. Overall a weak table and my theory was that the donk was gonna give me enough action and allow me to bet everyone else out if need be. In fact, without premium hands, I was not entering the pot unless he did (or on the occasion a newbie stepped in to the seat immediately to my right).

Remember yesterday when I mentioned watching for the guy who folds to the river bet too often? Yea, well the guy I’m referring to was “that guy.” He’d raise up preflop, I’d reraise. Eventually, I wasn’t even concerned with my hole cards, I knew if he raised the unopened pot, and I reraised, he and I were heads up. He musta been drunk or something. We’d go back n forth raising pre. Flop would come, which usually went to cap. Turn came, I’d bet hard, he’d call station. River, he’d check, I’d bet, he’d fold. Or I’d bet, he’d fold. In fact, this happened 10 of 14 times. More than a few times with large pots and odds so huge that it was damn near correct to call my river bet with 2-7offsuit and AKQJJ on the board.

A question you might be thinking of right now is, “Beer Guy, you must be drunk. Why in the world would someone holding a 2-7 offsuit even be in that pot, let alone call yer river bet.” Good question. I can’t answer the first, as I’ve not yet been able to think like a total donk. However, I can answer the second part. I was observant enough, thanks to pokertracker, to pick up that this clown was weak on the river. Like extra weak. He, on the other hand, was not picking up on the fact that I knew he was weak on the river. Thus, its pretty likely that I was bluffing on the river more often than I’d like to admit. If 2-7o is the last hand he ever plays, then he’s correct in folding on the river (forget preflop for a second). However, if he’s gonna continue to contest me for pot after pot, he might wish to take the advantage that I’ve clearly exploited away from me and throw in a raise, at the very least do SOMETHING to make me think twice about bluffin on the river. Who knows, I bet into the dangerous board on the river, and he re-raises me, I too might think twice, considering he’s allowed me to beat him senseless on the river and he’s laid down and taken it. This guy was clearly goin too far with his hand and having a “come to Jesus” meeting with himself at the worst possible time, the river. Thanks to him though, I had a +45BB win rate JUST AGAINST HIM!

Surprisingly, the others did not fair as well against him. He was calling down their raises and reraising them, pretty much what I was doing to him. They too were weak, and would drop a few hands to him. I think this kept him in the game. Well, that and when he flopped two pair (3-6s) against my capped KK. I don’t mind though, as he was still very profitable to me and I assure you, I will find this guy whenever I am at the tables and he’s present.

As mentioned, off to live action today. I’ll have a full report tomorrow of the live action. Plus, we’ll discuss some of the upcoming CheckRayz events and promotions. Good fishin’!

Housekeeping

Several money-added freeroll poker tourneys and money-added buy-in poker tourneys have been added to the Feb-March Calendar for CheckRayz. We’re ending Feb with a bang and starting out March with “Authorita!” CheckRayz poker tournament schedule can be accessed here. Not a member? sign up and play in our checkrayz leaderboard poker tournaments now!

Also note, the Money added River Belle tourney originally scheduled for yesterday has been rescheduled for March 1st at 9pm. Please download, deposit and support.

Poker Tracker Stats pt II

When we left off yesterday, we were looking at my win rate of 39.60% when I saw the flop. We were preparing to take a look at what is goin on with the Beer Guy’s game once the flop comes, which is where we shall begin.

As stated yesterday, I’m trying to achieve tight aggressive play, carefully selecting my “spots” and being a leader or monster on the table, as opposed to a follower or caller a.k.a. “donk.” One of the ways I can tell if I am achieving leadership/monster status is my aggression level on each street.

On the flop, I’m typically going to put in a continuation bet or a probing bet, depending on what I’ve done preflop. Additionally, if I am checking, am I doing so with the intention of folding, or trapping? One thing I have to keep in mind on the flop though, is that often these bets are called for several reasons. One reason is that peeps know that a brotha is gonna put in a continuation bet on the flop. Another is that there are two cards to go. And yet a third reason why bets may be called on the flop is because they’re cheap relative to the turn and river. So keeping this in mind, I am shooting for an aggression factor — (% times you raise plus % times bet) divided by % of hands called. Ideally, I’m shooting for a flop aggression factor of between 1.8 and 3.0, keeping the above in mind.

My flop aggression factor: 1.9 and rising. This is looking good from my standpoint, especially considering I like to play “stop and go” poker when playing limit (I’ll discuss this strategy in a post down the road).

Turn Aggression

On the turn, I should be betting for value in many instances. Also a good place to throw in a check-raise if you’re against the proper opponent. Not a bad place to throw in a semi-bluff as well in the limit game. Keep in mind, one card to go. Ideally speaking, once again you’re wanting an aggression factor between 1.8-3.0.

My turn aggression factor: 2.53 and rising. I’ve been pounding the turn recently, in part due to my previous reluctance on betting the river. I’ve found that by often throwing in a river bet, my bets and raises on the turn are getting more respect, especially considering the opposition may well be calling at least one more additional bet on the river. If he’s drawing, is he wanting to chance having to call down my check-raise or my bets on the turn KNOWING he’s gonna face one on the river?

River Aggression

For starters, the river bet has been a part of my game that I have neglected quite often. Before, I’d raise pre, bet, bet, get to the river and check through. Not any more. I’ve taken this stat up nearly 3/4 of a point over the last few sessions. That being said, the ideal river aggression factor is 1.8-2.5. Here, you’re betting for value generally. Which, if you think you have the best hand, you bet it, right? Well, generally speaking, but we’ll keep it simple. When else do you pound the river? I can tell you, if I look at my pokertracker stats and see that my opposition is folding on the river to a bet, say 40% of the time or more, I’ll bet the River each and every time we’re in the same pot and twice on Sundays where he and I are heads up. Especially in the lower limits, people will incorrectly fold to a river bet with a huge pot and great odds. On the river, we’re looking for an aggression factor of 1.8-2.5.

My river aggression: 1.76. Once again, last few sessions, I’ve driven this number up by nearly .75. This in part, is helping my bottom line and increasing the BB/100 hands I’m taking down, which in case anyone is wanting to know, I’m taking down 2.93BB/100 hands. Not too shabby!

We’ll revisit pokertracker in the weeks to come. I just was crunching my stats and figured I’d share with the readers of the Pub. Now onto the mailbag.

Friday Mailbag

To participate in the Friday Mailbag, send a message to me via eeeeemail, instant message, or private message via the Shark Forum.

(Insert name of choice) writes:

I still cannot log in. I’d love to play (insert room of choice here) tonight, but can’t seem to log in to the site. Can you please help?

Thank you. This question is asked as often as I press rewind on the Tivo watching Stacy Keibler kick it on Dancing with the Stars. This is becoming my favorite question. Once again, here are the following main reasons why people cannot log into the site.

1. Did you register with checkrayz? Be aware that in the shark network, there are three seperate databases. Often, you’ll receive shark network email. However, it does not mean you’ve subscribed to all three databases. Before emailing for help, type in your email address into the “forgot password” box.

2. Do you have the registration confirmation handy? If not, type your email address in the “forgot password” box on the checkrayz site.

3. Got it now? Copy (ctrl+c) and paste (ctrl+v) your email address and the password provided from the registration/forgot password into the appropriate sign in boxes.

4. Clear your cookies and repeat above.

5. Email mike through the checkrayz site. Wait for his response, which will generally occur within the same day. DO NOT EMAIL THREE TIMES IN THREE HOURS CITING YOU’VE BEEN ASKING AND ASKING WITH NO RESPONSE. You’ll get not much more than sarcastic commentary from me and will end up on my shitlist.

I’d put that in the FAQ section of the rayz site, but…

1. the FAQ section is not built yet.

2. I love answering that question.

Next question…

Beer Guy, when will you be having more freerolls?

Glad you asked! Just added a whole bunch of poker tourneys, many of which freerolls. Find them here.

Another two emails asking…

Beer, I like the idea of pokertracker, but can’t afford to drop the $55 bux. What should I do?

I respond:

For one, you’re looking at it wrong. You cannot afford to do WITHOUT it! Try this. Download pokertracker here, DO NOT pre-load any hands. Ask me which site you should try it at. Download and deposit at said poker room, turn on gametime +, find and isolate some donks, make the $$$ necessary to pay the registration fee while test driving pokertracker. In fact, you play the 1000 hands necessary by downloading pt through me, depositing, and playing on a beer guy recommended site, I might even kick ya the $fitty-five to get ya goin.

And finally… mailbag letter of the week:

Beer, Is your brother as big of a donk as you?

My answer is this. I’m 5’8″, he’s a good six something. You tell me.

More mailbag next week. I’m playing live action tomorrow, so expect a sunday wrap up and surely a great “Little Bro’s bad beat story” for ya.

Housekeeping itemThe tourney at River Belle scheduled for today with CheckRayz has been postponed. I will also announce the reschedule date tomorrow.

Pokertracker Analysis

As mentioned yesterday, we’re going to take a look at my pokertracker stats and see how well the Beer Guy is… or is not playing. We’ll begin taking a look at it today, and finish up tomorrow, along with the ever so popular Friday Night Mailbag. I first want to credit and thank Shark for introducing me to pokertracker and getting me situated on what to look for, stats wise. Additionally, thanks go out to Sharky, Doug, and Clay for the strategy posts, regarding pokertracker on the Shark Forum. Through them specifically, as well as the commentary, input, and feedback of the entire Shark Army (in addition to the numerous hours of study and self-evaluation I put in on my own), I’ve been able to continually improve my game. Which for the record, everyone can… and must continue to improve, learn and develop as a player in order to be successful. That being said, on to the poker stat crunching where we’ll look at my last 3000 hands (approximately) at the $1/2, $2/4 shorthanded limit ring games.

Preflop Play

As we all know, I shoot to be a tight-aggressive poker playa. I’m not wanting to let anyone at the table run me over. I’m the monster, I’m in control… that’s how I like it. That being said, I need the proper image to achieve the control I’m looking for. For that reason, I have to limit the starting hands I both play and show down. Otherwise, I’d end up being a joke of a monster, right?

VPIP- Voluntarily Put into pot

Very Tight – under 20% see flop – be careful with this guy. He carries big cards and probably is not afraid to use them! More often than not, this guy is only coming in with premium hands. Proceed with caution when encountering this guy’s raise.

Tight – Under 25% – This number is ideal. Hand selection is probably in order.

Semi-Tight – 25-30%

Semi-Loose – 30-40% Ladies and gentlemen, we’re now entering donk land, please fasten yer seatbelts!

loose – 40-50% – A pros best friend! Not playing real money for long. Get him while he/she still has a credit card or until mom figures out what he/she is doing

NO CLUE – Seek and destroy – over 50% with exact % in notes. An inheritance or power ball is his/her only chance.

That being said, my stats read a VP$IP of…… 22.79%, putting me on the tight scale, which is once again where I am wishing to be.

Preflop Raising:

Once again, we’re a leader not a follower. Consequently, leaders tend to raise, not call. We’d expect my numbers to be high, but not unreasonablly high as outlined below.

PRE-Flop Raising Very Passive – Never Raises Preflop
Passive – 3% or less Avg. agg 3 to 6% – this clown typically is afraid to raise it up without premium hands. I can often drive him out of pots through my “storytelling” approach (raise, bet, bet, bet…).

Aggressive 7-10%

Very Aggressive – 11-15%

Extremely AGGRESSIVE – Above 15% – take note of this, save for rainy day, though you’ll know to bring an umbrella. Its likely he will not, and you’ll see that he’s prolly raising any A, any PP, any King, and perhaps even any suited connectors. Keep your eye out on his play further into the game. It should be duly noted though that many pros are well above 15%, though it doesn’t necessarily mean you should “try this at home.”

My Preflop Raise percentage: 13.62%. This puts me on the higher end of the range of where I want to be. I used to be a lot less “hostile” on the table til Sharky and I discussed limit strategy (I was originally a low stakes no limit player). He convinced me that I needed to make more of an effort to raise and play from “position,” looking to raise up in the cutoff and on the button, especially if I have some sort of hand and the pot has yet to be open. We’ll look at this next.

Steals

As far as stealing goes, we’re first looking at attempting to steal a blind. This means it was folded around to player in these positions and these were their actions in Cut Off and Button (cut-off is seat before button to act)

No Steal 0% – the kid is playing only his cards, and position matters not to him.

Low steal under 15% – He may or may not have a clue, keep an eye for the hands he shows down when trying to steal to get a better understanding if he is using his cards or position.

Average steal 16-25%

hi steal 25% – 40%

40 always steals (write these exact percentage in your notes) – any two cards for this clown.

My steal attempts: 20.55% – right in the middle of average. Once again, I am happy with this number.

Allowing your blinds to be stolen. Keep in mind here, playing out of the blinds is dangerous. Sure, you’re already partially or fully invested in the pot, but you act at the worst possible time after the flop comes. For this reason, you want to be somewhat picky in when you choose to play, call, complete, or raise in the blinds. Many bad beat stories begin with “So I was in the Small Blind…”

Ideally speaking, we fold the following to steal attempts:

Folded SB to steal 78-88%

Fold BB to steal 55-65%

My percentages:

My SB Folded to Steal Attempt: 71.26% — this is a little lower than what we’d have shot for. I’ve been working on this number over the past several weeks, and from a progress standpoint, its been rising nicely.

My BB Folded to Steal Attempt: 51.49% — once again, this is lower than what I’m shooting for. The blinds were one of the leaks in my game I’ve been trying to plug. Consequently, because this number is on the rise, I’m happy with it, relatively speaking. Still some room to go for improvement though.

Finally, we’ll look at my won when saw flop percentages. Ideally, we should be winning approximately 31-40% of the flops we participate in. I’m sitting at 39.60%, so this puts me in relatively good shape.

Tomorrow, we’ll continue, beginning where we left off today, and assessing my post-flop play.

King of the Ocean – Shark spoke recently on the topic of play money and poker games. He claimed there is nothing worse for one’s game than play money. I couldn’t agree more and here’s why.

1. We’re all naturally creatures of habit. Play money creates bad habits. Nothing “real” at risk. You lose, no big deal. You win, you feel like a genius. The real world of poker ain’t the way you see it in the play rooms.

2. Our brains are wired in such a manner that when we put effort into something and get “desired result,” we repeat said actions thinking we will get the same desired results.

Consequently, when we evolve to cash tables, because we’re geniuses of the play $$$ (endless refills), we think it is OK to call down a 10x raise in the BB with 2-5, 2-6, or 2-7. I assure you, this is NOT ok (well, if you‘re obsessed with playing the hammer, and believe unconditionally the absolute Truth that it is the strongest hand in poker, than please continue playing the 7-2). We fall into this trap because we never truly got “burned” the first time we did it, playing with monopoly $$$.

3. We see other people who have a million plus play chips throwing them around like no one’s business. We therefore relate the stack to his skill level and thus try to duplicate his play, which then becomes habit and transfers to the cash tables.

4. THE ABSOLUTE WORST THING YOU CAN DO WHEN ON A LOSING STREAK IS TRY TO FIX YO GAME ON A PLAY MONEY TABLE. During this time, a string of bad cards or the board is working against you, its natural to want to move to play $$$ to “fix your game.” A lot of times, its bad cards – the negative end of variance! I went 27 consecutive pocket pairs without setting on the flop. Bad streaks come, even to Drunken Gods. When this happened, I did not change a thing. I played through it. I knew it wasn’t me (pokertracker verified this).

For these reasons, we really only want to use the play money to try out the poker software. I will say I do not even use play chips for that. I’m comfortable enough with the eye to determine whether or not I’d deposit based on what I see and read. I’d be more inclined to drop a fitty into a room that I wanted to try, thus “trying” things out on real tables, not risking too much principle. Last thing I want to do is risk corrupting my focus on a day at the monopoly tables.  For me, Play $$$ is off limits. I’d rather lose $50 than corrupt my style.

So, in closing, stay away from Uncle McBucks or whatever his name is… Deposit today. If you’re uncertain of the room you play in, try one of my rooms. These are sites we’re comfortable putting money in. Any questions on a poker room, give me a holla, I’ll be glad to screen for ya or give offer my opinion.

Poker Haiku of the day:

“Play Money Sux”

No play chips for me,
Real money the way to be,
Corruption no more.