Win Poker Tournaments – Key 3 wisdom

I listed the five things I feel are the most important keys in winning poker tournament play and playing winning tournament poker In the Introduction to Keys to Winning a Poker Tournament.

To recap, those 5 poker tourney keys are as follows:

1.  Knowledge the poker tournament’s structure.

2.  Knowledge of each poker player’s tendencies.

3.  Wisdom to identify the proper time and place to push or fold.

4.  Courage to execute on your knowledge and wisdom.

5.  Discipline to stay the course and adjust as necessary (stay off tilt).

Today, we shall discuss winning poker tournament key #3 -

Knowing when to make a move…  or not

We’ve obtained knowledge about the poker tournament structure, so we’re now acutely aware of how the blind structure looks – we know where the stress points of the tournament will be, as well as the various chip counts we will ideally possess at said pressure points.  We know the amount of poker tournament chips we start with, we know how long each level of the poker tournament shall last.  We also know how many poker players in our poker tournament get paid.

We’ve already gathered a great deal of information.  Some of this information came to us without our knowledge.  The first order of advice, or key to winning tournament poker play is to trust your gut.

Gut check – Know who to move on and who not to

Calling on our poker wisdom starts with trusting our gut.  Far too often, we’ve all made a move early in a poker tournament, knowing all the while deep down that we’re going to get caught.  And of course, the fish in seat 6 makes the big call on the flop, which commits the both of us.  That feeling we got…  the one that told us deep down that if we push, we’re getting caught – it’s your gut telling you the time is not right or the situation is not suitable to make a move.  For many of us, our “gut” is our internal thoughts.  Its a feeling based on past experiences at the poker table.  It knows stuff that our conscious mind does not know.  This happens because the conscious mind processes a bit more slowly than that of the subconscious mind.  The more experienced players will have many things (i.e. – tells from their opposition, villain’s betting patterns, etc) internalized.

That being said, do a quick gut check before pushing your chips to the center of the table, as trusting our gut feelings is part of that wisdom key I speak of. We commit to trusting our judgment on who to make moves against.   We listen to ourselves when it comes to making the big, yet painful lay down when seat 4 is betting out.  We know he isn’t the guy who leads when he’s behind.  Trusting our poker instincts in these situations is imperative to poker tournament success.

Time check – know when to move and when not to

We also obtained information about the tournament structure.  We will use this information to know what types of hands to play, when to play them, as well as how to play them.  Knowing where we are on the poker tourney map is very important.  When faced with a decision, and after consulting my gut, I consult the tournament structure.  I determine whether or not I can continue if I lose or forfeit the hand, and act accordingly.

Putting it all together

The blinds are 15-30 ante 5.  I’ve flopped middle pair with an overcard to the board.  There are 2 clubs on the board, to which I am lacking a club.  The pot contains roughly 200 tournament chips, my chip stack is 3000, which is the amount of chips we started with 4 rounds ago.  The players check to me.  Last to act, I bet 150, which is 3/4 of the pot.  Seat 2 calls me, seat 4 folds, seat 7, the short stack at the table raises all-in for 1000.  What do I do?

My gut tells me that the short stack flopped anything from an over pair, top pair, a set to a flush draw.  Assigning probability quickly to their hand range, I’m associating their play with a flush draw as the highest probability.  My gut tells me that the player left to act behind me is going to fold.  I’ve done my gut check and am pretty certain I’m ahead.  Let’s assume this player has flashed me his cards, so I know with absolute certainty that I am ahead in the hand.  We’ll also assume my math is there to justify a call based on pot-odds alone.  I have the poker math going for me, as well as my gut telling me I’m ahead.

Do I make the call?  Not until I check my poker tournament road map.  I’m at a 9 handed table, blinds are 15-30, ante of 5.  Each round costs me 90 tournament chips.  I have 3000 tournament chips, less the 150 I bet now giving me 2850 in poker chips.  If I make this call and the villain completes his flush or runners me for two pair, I will be down to 2100 in tournament chips.

I calculate my M for folding right now, which gives me an M of over 30.  Those who have read the endgame poker tournament strategy guide know that I’m in the green zone.  Thus, I have all my tools available to me and can make the call here.  However,we need to see where I’d be if I lose.  If I lose the hand, I’d have an M of over 23, which is still in the green zone.  Additionally, I know that the next level is 20-40, ante of 5, which puts me in the green zone still – even if I lose the hand.

My gut says go, the math says call, the tournament map says I’m ready for take-off, so I make the call.  This poses a question.  What if the tournament map suggests I fold?  Under the same set of circumstances, with the same action, knowing I am ahead and have the pot-odds, if the tournament map tells me that I’d be relegated to the red zone, I make what I call the “situational fold.”

Situational, structural folding in poker tournaments

We make situational folds under the following circumstances:

• we know or believe with great certainty we are ahead
• by folding, we can continue in the poker tournament with all of our weapons (read: we can smartly compete in the poker tournament)
• we cannot afford our read to be wrong or to get sucked-out on, as we’d be crippled or far worse off than we would be by calling (the negative impact by losing the hand far outweighs the benefit of winning the hand)

I place the greatest amount of emphasis on understanding and appropriately making the structural fold (or call, or push) in Texas hold em poker tournaments.  Let me say that again, playing within the design of the tournament structure is the single greatest factor in poker tournament success.  Phil Hellmuth utilizes and understands the concept of structural poker tournament play perhaps better than anyone playing tournament poker.  This is supported by the number of WSOP bracelets he has won in no limit Texas Hold em poker tournaments.  When he makes his the majority of his moves, or makes the big lay down, he’s doing so at the discretion of the structure of the tournament, because he understands and embraces structural poker tournament play.

~ imjusthere4thebeer writes articles discussing poker strategy, poker tournament strategy, and poker cash game strategy for the Online Poker Circuit.  He also contributes editorial commentary on the world of poker to the OPC via his Poker Pub blog, and discusses news from the poker world via the State of Poker News.